Is the Twilio-Segment deal expensive?

The Twilio-Segment acquisition was the biggest story of the weekend, and in our current IPO lull, it is the most-discussed deal of the moment.

So it hasn’t been a surprise to see folks working to figure out if the $3.2 billion price tag Twilio expects to pay for Segment is cheap, reasonable or expensive.

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We had the same question.

The all-stock transaction is another big deal from Twilio, which previously scooped up SendGrid. Some expected Twilio to be picked up by a larger company after it went public, I’ve been told. Instead, Twilio has become the acquiring entity, boosting its size and adding to its total addressable market (TAM) through dealmaking.

But a smart company can still overpay while executing a generally intelligent strategy. So, does the Segment deal look cheap, or expensive? While we don’t have all the data we’d like, a few useful VCs dropped hints about the size of Segment in my DMs.

Our hunt begins with Twilio’s own release on the matter. From there, we’ll bring in some historical data from the deal that Twilio compares the Segment transaction to, compare the resulting multiples to today’s market norms and close with a discussion of the acquiring company’s rising share price. The synthesis of all the elements will give us an answer. And we’ll have some fun at the same time.

The deal

A quick refresher on the deal: Twilio will spend $3.2 billion in shares of itself to purchase Segment. Per the company, the transaction is worth about 6% of the combined entity.

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